TL;DR
Track every signal: token, entry, TP, SL, timestamp, outcome. Calculate win rate, average win, average loss, expectancy. Look for patterns: time of day, market conditions, trade types. 2-4 weeks of data minimum before conclusions.
Watching signals isn't enough. You need to log them systematically. This is how you turn observation into evidence.
What to Log for Each Signal
Basic Data
- Token/Pair: What was signaled
- Signal Time: Exact timestamp
- Entry Price: Price when signal was given
- Take Profit: Target price
- Stop Loss: Exit level if wrong
- Actual Price at Signal: Verify entry was achievable
Outcome Data
- Result: Win/Loss/Break-even
- Exit Price: Where it actually closed
- P&L %: Actual percentage gain/loss
- Trade Duration: How long until exit
- Max Up (MFE): Highest point during trade
- Max Down (MAE): Lowest point during trade
Example Log Entry
Token: BONK | Signal: 2024-03-15 14:23 UTC
Entry: $0.000024 | TP: $0.000026 | SL: $0.0000228
Result: WIN | Exit: $0.0000258 | P&L: +7.5%
Duration: 4.5 hours | MFE: +9.2% | MAE: -1.8%
What to Calculate
Basic Metrics
- Win Rate: Wins ÷ Total Trades
- Average Win: Sum of winning P&Ls ÷ Number of wins
- Average Loss: Sum of losing P&Ls ÷ Number of losses
- Expectancy: (Win Rate × Avg Win) - (Loss Rate × Avg Loss)
Advanced Metrics
- Profit Factor: Total Gross Profit ÷ Total Gross Loss
- Average MFE: How much room was there on winners?
- Average MAE: How much heat do trades typically take?
- Best/Worst Trade: Extremes tell you about risk
Patterns to Watch For
Time-Based Patterns
- Do signals work better at certain hours?
- Weekday vs weekend differences?
- Performance during high-volume vs low-volume periods?
Market Condition Patterns
- Performance in bull vs bear conditions?
- When Bitcoin is up vs down?
- High volatility vs low volatility days?
Signal Type Patterns
- Do certain tokens perform better?
- High-score signals vs low-score signals?
- First signal of day vs later signals?
Minimum Data Requirements
Statistical significance requires sample size. Guidelines:
- Bare minimum: 20 trades
- Better: 50 trades
- Solid: 100+ trades
For most signal services, this means 2-4 weeks minimum of observation before drawing conclusions.
If you start observing during a bull run and see great results, that doesn't mean the system works in all conditions. Ideally, observe through different market phases.
Tools for Logging
- Spreadsheet: Google Sheets or Excel. Simple and effective
- Notion: Good for combining notes with data
- Trading journals: Specialized apps like Tradervue or TradesViz
- Our proof page: We publish complete data. You can download and analyze
Start Your Observation Period
Our live signals page shows complete trade data. Track along and calculate your own metrics.
View Live SignalsSummary
- Log systematically: Token, entry, TP, SL, timestamp, outcome
- Calculate key metrics: Win rate, expectancy, profit factor
- Look for patterns: Time, market conditions, signal types
- Minimum 20 trades before conclusions, 50+ is better
- Don't cherry-pick: Observe through different conditions